Hi everyone,
I hope you're doing well as we head into the cooler months. It's Chris here with your quarterly update on what's happening in the energy market and what it means for you as an Amber customer.
There's quite a bit to cover this quarter - from what to expect with wholesale prices this winter, to significant changes in regulated energy prices, dramatic drops in traditional retailer feed-in tariffs, and some big election promises around battery subsidies that will benefit Amber customers.
Let's dive in.
Winter Energy Market Outlook: Opportunities for Higher FiTs
As we move into winter, we're expecting the usual seasonal market dynamics to play out. The Australian Energy Market Operator is forecasting adequate energy generation capacity for winter, which is good news. However, we'll likely still experience higher wholesale price volatility during peak evening periods (5-8pm) when solar generation drops off and heating demand increases.
For Amber customers, this volatility presents some great opportunities. If you have a battery, you'll be able to discharge your battery during these high-price periods, giving you the chance to earn significantly higher feed-in tariffs than what traditional retailers are offering. Even without a battery, shifting some of your usage away from these peak periods will give you the potential to save compared to fixed-rate plans from traditional energy retailers that build these peak prices into your flat or time-of-use tariffs.
To help protect against any ongoing market volatility, Amber customers are also protected by our quarterly Bill Guarantee.
Default offer price changes
The regulators have recently released their draft Default Market Offer (DMO) and Victorian Default Offer (VDO) that will apply from July 1, 2025. These are the prices that traditional energy retailers compare their prices against when you’re shopping around.
The news isn't great for folks on traditional retail electricity plans.
The Australian Energy Regulator has proposed DMO increases of between 2.5% and 8.9% for residential customers in NSW, South East Queensland and South Australia. That means annual bill increases of up to $200 for some households.
Victorian customers will fare a bit better, with the Essential Services Commission proposing VDO changes ranging from a decrease of 1% to an increase of 5% depending on your distribution network.
For Amber customers, our wholesale model means you're not directly affected by these regulated price changes. Instead, you continue to access the wholesale market directly.
Traditional retailer FiTs are shrinking (potentially to $0)
Perhaps the biggest news this quarter is the dramatic reduction in minimum feed-in tariffs across Australia. Victoria has set the minimum FiT at just 0.04c/kWh for 2025-26 - yes, that's less than half a cent! This is a staggering drop from the current 3.3c/kWh.
In NSW, the benchmark feed-in rate is between 4.9c/kWh and 7.4c/kWh.
The reason for these drops is simple: the massive success of rooftop solar has led to an oversupply of energy during daylight hours, pushing wholesale prices down and sometimes into negative territory. Traditional retailers, who offer fixed FiTs regardless of the time of day, are responding by slashing their rates.
This is where Amber's model really stands out. While traditional retailers are moving to near-zero FiTs, Amber customers continue to receive the actual wholesale price when they export - including during those high-price evening periods when prices can earn you hundreds of times more than what traditional retailers offer. For customers with batteries who can strategically export during these peak periods, the difference can be a game changer. For solar customers with compatible inverters, selling into the wholesale market can also result in higher average feed-in rates than they can get in the retail market.
Federal election battery subsidy commitment
With the federal election decided, we are now anticipating the rollout of Labor’s plan to significantly subsidise home batteries. This is a policy decision that should help reduce the upfront cost of a typical battery by around $4,000, helping this game-changing energy tech go mainstream.
According to Labor’s proposal, the plan could save households an additional 30% on the upfront cost of a typical battery system. With a solar and battery system in place, it is forecast that households could save up to $2,300 on their energy bills annually - about 90% of a typical electricity bill.
We expect this federal rebate to be in addition to existing state and territory benefits that already exist. See our state-by-state guide to government incentives for more details.
For Amber customers, any subsidy to help when installing a compatible battery is particularly valuable when combined with our wholesale pricing model and SmartShift technology. There’s no better way to bring down your energy bills than to make your battery smarter so that you’re storing energy during low-price periods and using or exporting it when prices are higher. We expect homes using Amber for Batteries with SmartShift automation to save an additional $1,000 or more annually.
Here are some useful resources for anyone considering a battery, solar or EV:
- Amber for Batteries features and benefits
- Amber SmartShift™ compatible home batteries
- Amber SmartShift™ compatible solar inverters
What This Means for You
Putting all this together, here's what it means for you as an Amber customer:
- If you have solar and a battery: The gap between Amber's wholesale-linked FiTs and traditional retailers' fixed low FiTs is growing dramatically. While other customers might be getting as little as 0.04c/kWh regardless of when they export, you'll continue to receive the actual wholesale price, which can be significantly higher during peak periods (up to $19/kWh at its peak).
- If you're considering a battery: The new subsidies could make this year a great time to invest, especially given the increasing gap between daytime and evening prices. With Amber, you can maximise the value of your battery by responding to real-time prices.
- For all customers: As traditional retail prices increase with the new DMO and VDO, Amber's wholesale model continues to provide a transparent alternative that gives you direct access to the real price of energy, without retail mark-ups.
- We’re here for you: We’ve been working hard over the last few months to make it easier to get timely help from our customer support team whether you’re considering expanding your system or having technical difficulties.
Thanks for doing energy differently. Here's to a winter of smart energy use and savings!
Cheers,
Chris
Co-CEO at Amber
